Mario Kart 8 item probability distributions

The following distributions are used by version 4.1 of the game to determine the probability of obtaining a certain item when an item box is broken^[1]. Such a probability is coded as a percentage multiplied by two.

Races

During races, each probability distribution is chosen depending on the distance from the frontrunner in the moment the item box was broken. The distance reported is the one at which the switch to the next ditribution happens.

Grand Prix races

Item probability distributions (Grand Prix races, drivers controlled by players)
Distance (units)
400	65	50	5	5											5		70
1000	20	25	50	20	10								10	10	5	5	15	15	10	5
2000	10	20	30	25	15			15					10	15	5	10	5	10	10	15	5
3300		15	20	50	5	5		60					5	5		10			10	10	5
5500			10	30		5	5	85	25	10		25									5
8000				10			5	65	40	30	5	40									5
13000							5	35	35	60	10	55
26000								10	30	85	15	60
999998								30	40	70		60
999999								30	40	70		60

Item probability distributions (Grand Prix races, drivers controlled by software)
Distance (units)
300	50	40	15	10											5		70	10
700	25	30	60	15	5								5	10	5	5	20	10	10
1300	30	35	30	25	10			10					10	5		10	15	10	10
2600	30	35	15	45	10	5		25					5	5		5	5		15
4500	30	35	5	50		5	3	47	10			10							5
7000	15	20		50			4	58	20	10	3	20
13000	10	10		30				57	30	30	3	30
26000	10	10		10				42	30	55	3	40
999998				30				60	30	50		30
999999				30				60	30	50		30

Versus Races

All Items

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, All items, drivers controlled by players)
Distance (units)
400	60	50	5												5		80
1000	15	25	45	20	10			5					10	10	10	5	20	10	10	5
2000	5	15	35	30	10			25					10	15	5	10	5	10	10	10	5
3300		15	18	50		5	2	65	10				5			5			10	10	5
5500				25		10	5	85	33	10	2	25									5
8000				10			5	65	40	30	5	40									5
13000							2	40	30	65	8	55
26000								20	25	90	10	55
999998								40	30	70		60
999999								40	30	70		60

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, All items, drivers controlled by software)
Distance (units)
300	60	45	15												5		75
700	30	35	55	10	5								5	10	10	5	20	10	5
1300	30	35	30	20	15			10					10	5	5	10	10	10	10
2600	30	40	15	40	10	10		20					5	5		5	5		15
4500	30	40		50		10	5	40	10			10							5
7000	15	30		55			5	40	20	10	5	20
13000	10	10		40				45	30	30	5	30
26000	10	10		20				30	30	55	5	40
999998				30				60	30	50		30
999999				30				60	30	50		30

Mushrooms Only

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Mushrooms Only, drivers controlled by players)
Distance (units)
400	100			100
1000	100	50		50
2000	100	85		15
3300	70	130
5500	30	130	40
8000		120	80
13000		80	120
26000		40	160
999998		100	100
999999		100	100

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Mushrooms Only, drivers controlled by software)
Distance (units)
300	120			80
700	120	40		40
1300	110	80		10
2600	110	90
4500	90	80	30
7000	70	70	60
13000	50	60	90
26000	50	60	90
999998	50	110	40
999999	50	110	40

Shells Only

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Shells Only, drivers controlled by players)
Distance (units)
400	100			100
1000	90	30		40	30	10
2000	60	60		10	40	30
3300	40	65	5		50	40
5500	20	70	10		50	50
8000		60	10		50	80
13000		50	10		50	90
26000		50	10		50	90
999998	200
999999	200

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Shells Only, drivers controlled by software)
Distance (units)
300	120			80
700	90	50		40	20
1300	80	70		10	40
2600	70	65	5		60
4500	60	55	5		80
7000	45	50	5		100
13000	35	40	5		120
26000	25	30	5		140
999998	200
999999	200

Bananas Only

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Bananas Only, drivers controlled by players)
Distance (units)
400	100	100
1000	115	50	35
2000	120	15	65
3300	110		90
5500	80		120
8000	50		150
13000	20		180
26000	20		180
999998	200
999999	200

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Bananas Only, drivers controlled by software)
Distance (units)
300	120	80
700	130	40	30
1300	140	10	50
2600	130		70
4500	110		90
7000	90		110
13000	70		130
26000	70		130
999998	200
999999	200

Bob-ombs Only

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Bob-ombs Only, drivers controlled by players)
Distance (units)
400	100	100
1000	130	70
2000	160	40
3300	180	20
5500	190	10
8000	200
13000	200
26000	200
999998	200
999999	200

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Bob-ombs Only, drivers controlled by software)
Distance (units)
300	120	80
700	150	50
1300	170	30
2600	190	10
4500	190	10
7000	200
13000	200
26000	200
999998	200
999999	200

Frantic Mode

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Frantic Mode, drivers controlled by players)
Distance (units)
400	30	25	10	25											10		45	30	25
1000	5	5	30	20	15			10					15	15	15	15	5	20	20	10
2000			10	10	15	5	5	25	15				15	20	15	15		10	15	20	5
3300				5		10	10	45	40	15		20	5	5	5	5			10	15	10
5500							10	45	55	30	5	40								10	5
8000							5	35	55	45	5	50									5
13000								25	40	65	10	60
26000								10	30	85	10	65
999998								30	40	70		60
999999								30	40	70		60

Item probability distributions (Versus Races, Frantic Mode, drivers controlled by software)
Distance (units)
300	35	35	20	15											5		60	15	15
700	15	20	45	15	10			10					10	10	10	10	10	15	20
1300	15	20	25	20	15			30	10				10	10	5	10		10	20
2600	15	20	10	25	10	10	5	40	20			10	5	5		5		5	15
4500	15	20		25		10	5	40	30	15	5	30							5
7000	10	10		20			10	35	40	30	5	40
13000	5	5		15			5	30	35	50	5	50
26000	5	5		10				25	30	60	5	60
999998				20				30	30	60		60
999999				20				30	30	60		60

References

^ A transcription of the item probability distributions and the conditions to obtain them in version 4.1 of Mario Kart 8. Retrieved June 20, 2016.

[1] A transcription of the item probability distributions and the conditions to obtain them in version 4.1 of Mario Kart 8. Retrieved June 20, 2016.

[1]

Mario Kart 8 item probability distributions

Contents

Races

Grand Prix races

Versus Races

All Items

Mushrooms Only

Shells Only

Bananas Only

Bob-ombs Only

Frantic Mode

References

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